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-   -   Hurricane Prediction and Tracking Resources (http://www.fksa.org/showthread.php?t=1609)

RickI 06-10-2006 05:54 AM

Hurricane Prediction and Tracking Resources
 
Some links to various Internet Hurricane Information have been gathered here to provide general information.
Please refer to the actual websites for instructions and limitations and in particular the
National Hurricane Center website for reliance purposes.



National Hurricane Center (Primary Site)


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...e_and_wind.png
Click link below for advisories, analysis and discussion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...png/024806.png
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...toa34#contents


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated.gif


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stor...cks_latest.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stor...cks_latest.png


http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/wind/084.png
http://passageweather.com/
A prediction of system movement and changes
Click and hit "animate" to see the GFS model projection


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...Norm_atl_3.png
The European Model (ECMWF), click image above and use the slider at the top of the page to run through the time series of forecasts.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...&pkg=mslpaNorm


http://www.fksa.org/gallery3/var/res...g?m=1506953236
Wind Alert Realtime Wind Flow Map (CLICK image)


https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...201718_sat.jpg
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane


A good animation of forecast conditions worth examining.
https://www.facebook.com/shea.gibson...5358994591941/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com


https://www.facebook.com/WeatherFlow...e8&pnref=story
Shea Gibson of Wind Alert provides an in-depth analysis of conditions


http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basi..._loop_ndfd.gif
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basi..._loop_ndfd.gif



http://images.intellicast.com/WxImag.../HurTrack1.gif
http://www.intellicast.com/storm/hurricane/


http://fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes...g?m=1475546847
CLICK THIS OLD PHOTO for CURRENT Wind Alert information on the hurricane
http://www.windalert.com/storm/matthew


http://www.fksa.org/gallery3/var/res...g?m=1504623992
http://www.spaghettimodels.com


https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp
A discussion of the various weather models


http://www.fksa.org/gallery3/var/res...g?m=1504622822
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rb.html


*** The Jeff Master's blog at Weatherunderground can provide some interesting insights into inbound tropical systems at:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html


Brian Norcross now has a blog on Weatherunderground as well.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/show.html


NOAA Frontal Weather Maps
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/national_forecast.jpg
http://nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-tim...ages/irng8.GIF
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-tim...at=g8&prod=irn



http://fksa.org/gallery3/var/resizes...g?m=1374760743
You can see a Weatherunderground loop of the more conservative and generally acknowledge to be more accurate ECMWF model at http://wxug.us/16ncu


Weather Radar:


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php


http://images.intellicast.com/WxImag..._None_anim.gif
http://images.intellicast.com/


http://www.fksa.org/albums/album516/Radar.jpg
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/radar/
They even have local radar with cloud cover, hazardous weather overlays. If you click on any of the buoy or ship symbols you can popup weather/seas data from those sources.



http://www.fksa.org/albums/album525/...e_analysis.jpg
Animated surface analysis (CLICK image to link to site)


https://cdn20.patchcdn.com/users/714...88532-6606.jpg
https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/...1-e17d87b8b6a0
Texas A&M Power Outage Prediction


http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
Hurricane guidance info from Colorado State University and Dr. Grey


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/...3.13072418.gif
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html


http://www.meteofrance.gp/integratio...XV4C6IBYY.tiff
A look at radar out of Martinique along the Antilles (you can put this in motion at the link below by hitting Animation)
From: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions...radar/antilles



http://radar.wunderground.com/data/n...erto-rico.html
Radar around Puerto Rico



http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/NacComp200Km.gif
Radar around Cuba
http://www.cnr.camaguey.cu



http://www.gov.ky/radar_images/radar/400km_ppi.gif
Radar around the Cayman Islands
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/pag..._schema=PORTAL



http://www.sailflow.com/map#23.889,-83.172,6,1
Realtime winds around Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba
http://www.sailflow.com/map#23.889,-83.172,6,1


http://static.baynews9.com/images/wx...rida_winds.jpg
http://www.baynews9.com/weather/marine.html


http://www.crownweather.com/cws.jpg
A good tropical weather summary site with a lot of imagery (Thanks Felipe!)
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29


News updates out of SE Florida:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane
News updates out of NW Florida:
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/....dll/frontpage
News updates out of Central Florida:
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/
News updates out of NE Florida:
http://jacksonville.com/weather/
News updates out of SW Florida:
http://www.naplesnews.com/


General Hurricane References

Hurricane Preparation:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/hurricane.html
http://www.fema.gov/rebuild/index.shtm
http://www.disastercenter.com/guide/hurricane.html
http://www.floridadisaster.org



TV Station Listing For Florida
http://www.officialusa.com/stateguid...s/florida.html



Online Radio Station Listing for Florida
http://www.surfmusic.de/country/florida.html




*** FPL POWER OUTAGE MAP ***

http://vielmetti.typepad.com/.a/6a00...af045dc970d-pi
http://www.fplmaps.com/





Good luck to everyone through this hurricane season. Plan well and prepare early.

kiwiar2000 08-16-2007 02:43 PM

omg, not again to Cancun! poor people!

RickI 07-23-2008 02:41 PM

Looks like Dolly is finally getting sheared apart after hammering on Texas for so long. Hope it passes quickly on at this point. Good luck to the folks down there.

I've added several active images to the original post above this one. Those specific views should automatically update through time. Take care and good luck to all of us through this season.

RickI 08-14-2008 06:10 AM

Hope this amounts to nothing other than some beneficial rain to help rebuild water reserves. At the same time, this may be a good time to check your hurricane plan, make sure you have adequate water, food, fuel, battery, prescription drug, pet food, etc. reserves. There could be a run on the stores in a few days. At least you don't have to worry about getting protection for windows and doors as you have that already from years past, right? Take care and hope it is yet one more uneventful storm season but be prepared all the same.

RickI 08-28-2008 09:15 PM

Heads up, Hanna may be paying a visit, sure hope not. Still, I would keep an eye on this one. I've added some more graphics to the list above.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/media/al...2-28160912.jpg

Take care and good luck this season

conchxpress 08-28-2008 09:52 PM

Hurricane computer models
 
Rick,

I've studied what the different computer models refer to from the NHC link. Are there any statistics available as to which model has the best "batting average"? I know that the NHC derives a composite from all the submitted models and that's the main track that we see on the news. But it would be nice to know which color on the spaghetti models page guesses right more than the others. Maybe there are some good private handicappers that don't have the constraints of alarming the public too soon.

Frank

RickI 08-28-2008 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by conchxpress (Post 36401)
Rick,

I've studied what the different computer models refer to from the NHC link. Are there any statistics available as to which model has the best "batting average"? I know that the NHC derives a composite from all the submitted models and that's the main track that we see on the news. But it would be nice to know which color on the spaghetti models page guesses right more than the others. Maybe there are some good private handicappers that don't have the constraints of alarming the public too soon.

Frank

This is what they concluded in annual NHC (Model) Verification Reports:

2007
• Among the consensus models, CGUN (the corrected version of GUNA)
performed the best overall. The GFSI and UKMI/EGRI provided the best
dynamical track guidance, while the GFDI and NGPI performed relatively poorly.
The performance of EMXI in 2007 was mediocre.

2006
• Among the operational consensus models, GUNA performed the best
overall. The GFDI, GFSI, and NGPI provided the best dynamical track guidance
at various times, while the performance of the UKMI trailed considerably. No
early dynamical model had skill at 5 days.

2005
• OFCL track forecasts were better than all the dynamical guidance models, and even beat the consensus models at some time periods.

There is a lot of information and qualifying conditions presented in the annual reports. You should checkout the complete summaries for the Atlantic Basin at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml

C. Moore 08-29-2008 08:32 AM

Thanks Rick.. Always good stuff from you. It looks like Florida will be the cream filling in a Oreo Cookie and the hurricanes are the cookies.

RickI 08-30-2008 05:52 PM

Hurricane Gustav is looking bad, almost Cat. 5 and hammering over western Cuba into the Gulf. Man I hope something comes along to lessen the power of this thing.

Also, heads up, long term track maps show TS Hanna heading across South Florida later in the coming week. Hope it stays weak and doesn't build up in strength.

BigR 08-31-2008 04:30 AM

Hanna is all over the place , they have it as a cat I or II hitting JAX now or maybe even a jab at OBX


safe to say all bets are off on this one


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