Thoughts for Sunday
 

Anyone want to take a stab at Sunday prediction. Weather models seem to be very conflicting. NOAA looks epic, Accuweather isn't calling for much, IKITE is in the middle. The Satelite doesn't look too organized at the moment.

What do you think?

i think if its windy, i will ride. If its not, i won't. Sorry steve, couldn't resist. Looks like honeymoon again for some south action, if it happens, unless maybe you take out the S.S. STEVE-O and i can stow-away on it somewhere:) I think we need an official whitey prediction on this one.

the last couple solid S -> SSW -> SW wind days we've had, usairnet and accuweather had them pretty much nailed..even on the low end..

for sunday / monday they are not showing the winds they were forecasting a couple days ago..

might be much lighter than I've been crossing my fingers for..

we will see..

-b

im guessin big kites big boards with a few sucker winds but i'll be out there waiting to see what happens

The variability of the forecasts always amaze me. Weather.com increased the winds on sunday by 4-5mph through the week. I know weather.com isnt the most accurate, but if you look at 5 sites, each one could be so different.
Shoulda been a weatherman, then I could just shrug my shoulders when I was wrong at work.

Most of those wind forecasts truly should say "For entertainment purposes only".
The biggest problem is that the wind forecasts are for fairly large areas. Right off the bat you have a problem. As we all know, different patterns for wind exist in different areas within the forecast region. Souths tend to have a few areas where the wind is amplified. Northeasts the same thing, sea breezes the same thing.
Also, different times of the day can amplify the winds or diminish them differently depending on where you are. At EB, Souths almost always peak at 1-2pm. I don't even leave my house until noon anymore on a South.
Then it's almost always over (at EB) by 4:30. It's just how it is. There are rare exceptions, but that's a pretty strong pattern.

If I were you guys up North, I would start building on your observations for your area over a few seasons and learn to notice patterns. Once you do, you will be much more well equipped than even the best WxMan to make reasonable stabs at wind for a particular area. Those guys (Wx) do know what they are doing, but the areas they are asked to predict for in terms of wind pretty much screw them right off the bat. I bet if we had Steve Jarvey riding with us and he started to care about making micro-forecasts, he would nail the wind forecast for EB every time. :) .

Well we HAD Josh Linker but you had to go and goof on him and scare him away Scott!!! LOL!!! ;)

Nah. I actually like him now. I even bet on his forecast for the last hurricane.

http://www.fksa.org/showthread.php?t...ghlight=linker

So where is everone going to go?
Scott you seem to have this down pretty well ... What do you think whats are best chances...?

eb it is...
 

hey its going to be pretty light...so i've got an old surfboard that i will bring.. but my kids broke off two of the 3 fins :confused: only the center left... not sure how it will ride..:rolleyes: guess we will see
south is onshore at eb right..?
also do u need booties at the tip...

sure is

not if you step lightly

:confused:

I never ever use them

East Beach- Bring food, grills & liquids
Its time for some old school comradarie amongst the locals- Tampa Bay style!
Jason- Its a good idea to wear booties anywhere in the Bay, NASTY CUTS at most every launch site.
Wind or not it should be fun but crowded (let's try to keep it away from shore) and have a good time.
See you there!

I agree with Scott with the looking for patterns as the best way to forecast. I barely read them anymore exept to see what direction which usially the only thing right with most of the forecast models. Usially whenever you see the SSE to SSW switch it will be windy and pick up as it shifts more SSW as the front gets closer. Definatly a trend that seems to be pretty reliable and because hot air rises, usially its 5 knots or so windier where the kite is especially from about 1 to 4 when its warmest out...than it will probibly die off really fast as the land cools off and the sun sets.

It'll ride better.

Thrusters create a lot of drag if they have any toe in at all.

Actually, the drag comes after the Thruster is shredded...LOL!!!

Ok so if anyone is game......I would like to compare the wind speed down south (East Beach) to up North (3 Rooker) tomorrow. Get a 12pm, 2pm, and 4pm read and lets compare notes. My hunch is it is a bit stronger up north which still baffles me to this day. Huge fetch across the bay vs. minor fetch in the coastal waterway north of Dunedin Causeway. I don't think sensor comparison will be too accurate.

Thanks for all the advice, I agree with Scott, should be a decent day in the afternoon as many previous days like tomorrow's forecast have shown. I can remember many a south blow with a 15knt forecast and its blowin 20-25knt. The frontal forecast for Mon-Wed looks decent which leads me to believe that tomorrow will be quite good. I guess we'll see.

Be safe and I hope there is not too much grillin down there.

I will probably be the one getting grilled, but I'm armed with 3 packs of brats and a few cold frosties to keep the peace! :cool:
Tom's clambake was one of the best days ever at EB; we should plan a shindig before the end of the season.

Figures that Sadler would go for sausages near the mangroves...

Fun day at EB. Probably 40 kites.

Here are my guesses to the wind. I don't wear a watch, so the time is more of a guess than the wind speeds.
Okay, get there at 11 or so -- ain't blowing shit. I ride with Australia Bill to backside of SW and back for fun. It was blowing 9 to 10 knots (max).
It stays kinda lame for awhile. When it first starts to fill in, it's all over the place - 11 to 17 knots for about 30 minutes (that was probably just shy of noon). Then it settles down to solid 13 to 16 for about 1.5 hours.
Then it hits (pretty quickly) solid 16 to 18/19 for about 1.5 hours.
Then it settles back down to 15-17 for 1.5 hours.
Then it starts to peter out around 4:30 and definitely took a crap by around 5:30.

I think our wind peaked at 1:30/2:00.

I bet you guys had stronger winds up near Honeymoon/Dunedin.
Let us know.

Nice day, fun watching everyone ride. Had some food from the Grill courtesy of Steve (thanks)... didn't notice the drinks, but it's ok I couldn't have had one anyway since I'm doin' low carb.

Wind was up and down... rode my 9 until 2, then rode my 12 for awhile... then Billy's 12.5 for awhile, and then went back down to the 9 later... and then called it a day after my arms started cramping up.

I am burnt bad, but my arms are wrecked.

Nice food for sure. Billy's Ion3 seemed pretty awesome to me.
Thanks again for the loan of that perfectly tuned kite, Tom. That really made my day. :mad:
You should just throw that stock line in the trash.

Scott,

Sounds about right up there as well. I didn't keep as good a tabs as you did. Nothing till about noon as well, then started to fill in around 15 or so. At one, started to pickup in the upper teens and held there throughout the rest of the day. I think we may have had it the low 20's for a little but for the most part was upper teens until we left at sundown. No brats but that would have been nice.

All in all a great day out there. It was the most kites I have seen at 3 Rooker.

That's sounds like a little more for a little longer, maybe.

How many kites? 12?

East Beach was incredible today. warm sun, great wind, didn't even need a suit. Nice too see everyone enjoying the day, i counted about 38 kiters on the water at one time!

I never seemed to be crowded though, rock on!

Counted 14 kties in the air at one point at 3 rooker today, with 3 or 4 on the beach, most I have ever seen there, it was a really nice group to ride with. I think the wind was closer to 20 from 2:00 till we left at 5:30 still cranking when we left, still showing 15.7 kts at fred howard as I post this. Had to go down to the 138 bitch witch to keep the 14 tracking with the depower pulled in to some degree for the last 3 hours.

I trust your guy's take a lot more than any lame iMight sensor.
Check out PaG's readings today. :roll: :rolleyes: http://www.iwindsurf.com/windandwher...49&siteID=1428

epic day at 3 rooker. Its never crowded if the crowd is all your friends. Except for some kook that knocked my kite out of the sky during a light wind contest:) once it filled in I was lit out of my mind on a 16 and 130x40, then sampled a few 14's with same board(thanks guys) then pumped up an 11 and stayed powered till sundown. best session to date, warm air shallow flat water sandy bottom doesnt get much better than that.

Great session at EB; All happy faces at the end of the day. The wind was super steady I wish more days like this often, flat water, sun, 20 knots, shallow, friendly people, food, beer, good looking girls, etc.

I got a preview of Amber's pics and all look great. Check them out at her website soon.

www.kitesurfingpics.com

Cheers

Hate to bring up the obvious....but it is days like today that make us so cranky in the summertime. Thank God it is still February.

...and we still have our best month ahead of us...March when both the air and the water warm up and no neoprene required!!!

EB was a blast today, had a great time with all my bros and sistas!!!

That was Definitely a good time! I got throught the day with only one painful unhooked faceplant, and a whole bunch of my new signature move called "Dude,where's my board?".... I feel pretty lucky after watching some of you guys paying your dues. OUCH!
Amber got some killer shots of a bunch of us today, Looking forward to seeing them!
I usually have her shirts and stickers in my truck. A nice ringer T and 2 bumper stickers are 20 bux. (They might not make you ride better, but you'll definitely be the coolest guy at the stop light.:cool: )
Thanks for the grill Chef B
EPIC DAY
*Friendly Reminder:The ONLY thing the park asks of us is to be out BEFORE sundown. Please pack up in time and check your area for trash.
;)

No kidding. Paid my dues and then some today. Someone needs to stir the water for the fish right :D

took about 500 pictures and have spent all night trying to go thru them. That is one hell of a project. I should have them ready in the next two days and then i just have to kiss Chris Moore's ass so he'll put them on the site because I'm computer retarded and he's not.

Today was lots of fun. Lotsa kites and a few tangles that were handled calmly, and efficiently and always with a little help from friends, leading to no kitemares. I tried to kill adam with my kite but he dodged the bullet. sorry adam! My face is fried and i think i'm already sore, but probably not as sore as Scott will be tomorrow morning after that beating he took.

Today reminded me of why i got involved in this sport and the local kiting community. good times. ;) Thanks to everyone that came out and played!

I saw Adam dodge that pink kite. That was funny.
Who has to wait 'til tomorrow? I can't sleep my neck is so screwed.
No pills, not even aspirin over here either.
I really wish someone saw what the kite did on that. That was the most screwed up thing I have ever felt kiting, and I've had some premier screw ups and been caught in a few micro-gusts over the years. I learned my lesson. If you know a kite is tuned way off, just sail back in.

I bet those pics of Billy (and others) turned out nice. You had pretty much perfect lighting out there and he was jumping in the perfect spot each time from what I saw. Look forward to seeing them.

Sunday with Steve O and Crew
 

Steve O and Crew-

Thanks for bringing me out to 3 Rooker Sunday. Had a great time and it was nice to meet everyone. They were very cool and great to ride with. It is definitely an epic spot. Anytime you need gas money - give me a ring!!

Tony

I got to Cypress around 1:30 wind was maybe 5-10 then around 2:30 it picked up to 15-18 untill I left at 4:30. Two other guys out there. all in all a great day, And I got to try the new board I built...rides Like a champ.

:mrgreen: fo sho good times yesterday

glad to hear you guys are catching your share of wind. bahia salinas is really ripping right now. i was flying a 5m the other day!!! cant wait to ride with you crazies again when i get home. ;) :)