http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...9_sat_anim.gif
http://www.wunderground.com/

Hurricane Irene is moving through North Carolina and a good section of the east coast. Winds are sustained at 85 mph, a lot better than the devastating Cat. 4 conditions predicted not too long ago.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImag..._None_anim.gif
http://intellicast.com/

Winds around 55 mph with a range from about 35 to 80 mph per the record in Buxton on OBX mid morning, see below. Also it could easily go higher than 80 mph in bursts, tornadoes or other isolated squall activity that comes with these things. This storm is different at this point with the northern feeder bands reaching into New England currently have some major squall activity. The plot below that if for Cape Henry, VA at the entrance to the Chesapeake. A squall spiked the wind up from 40 mph to in excess of 65 mph. This will be repeated for the next few days along the areas hit with this bands that are hundreds of miles long. The one that almost killed me was about 450 miles long. So, folks well to the north are already at risk with associated squall activity. Rigged big for lighter conditions between feeder bands, squall spikes the wind and you're screwed, happens way too often. Stay well away from squalls and feeder bands, land and secure early. Better yet, blow off kiting until more consistent conditions return.


http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...1109_radar.gif
http://wunderground.com/

http://www.kiteforum.com/download/file.php?id=42668
Buxton, NC on OBX


http://www.kiteforum.com/download/file.php?id=42667
Cape Henry, VA at the mouth to Chesapeake Bay

It is that time of year again. I have updated the links on the first post of this thread including
online hurricane resources. Take care out there and here's to an uneventful hurricane season!


PLEASE GO TO THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD FOR CURRENT HURRICANE INFORMATION

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thanks Rick for comprehensively putting out all this information!!

You are welcome! Hope we only get some squall-free useable winds at times until frontal season kicks in again.

Tropical Depression 9 is projected to move over South Florida around Sunday or Monday as a hurricane. Heads up, hope it heads into the Atlantic as a fish storm but if not prepare well and early.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/dat...01209_5day.gif

I recall bringing this Hurricane resource post back to the top in May one year but I would prefer to ignore it until at least August. Anyway, looks like something might be coming up to the western part of Florida early in thew week from the models. It is forecast to pass over Florida and head out in the Straits and northward.

http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/wind/072.png

You can step through the model track for this tropical system at the link below. It isn't forecast to turn into a hurricane at this time but will likely bring wind and rain to Florida in the coming week.

http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/mappage.htm


http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/dat...1_sat_anim.gif
A look at the weather from 91L is you are wondering where all the rain is coming from.


Hope we have a mild season but monitor the forecasts and prepare as indicated should something threatening come along.

Tropical Storm Andrea has formed from the above system and is moving slowly northward pulling squalls and rain storms over Florida.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php


Here is the current model plot of the forecast track:


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...57W5_NL_sm.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


This is what Dr. Jeff Masters has to say about the storm as of 5 pm today:

"The Atlantic has its first named storm of the 2013 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Andrea. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was able to locate a closed center of circulation, and found surface winds of 40 mph in the large area of thunderstorms on the east side of the center. Satellite loops show that Andrea is a lopsided storm. It's center of circulation is exposed to view, due to a large region of dry air that covers the entire Central and Western Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is from a trough of low pressure whose upper level winds are also creating moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots over Andrea. Wind shear is forecast to rise to the high range, 20 - 40 knots, by Thursday. Andrea is forecast to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday evening, so the system has a short window of time to intensify. Given the large amount of dry air to Andrea's west, and the forecast for increasing shear up until landfall, I expect that the strongest sustained winds Andrea could have before landfall are 50 mph. Heavy rains will be the storm's main threat, though a few isolated EF-0 tornadoes will also be possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in Andrea's spiral bands. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet is predicted for Tampa Bay northward to Apalachicola, and rip currents will be a risk for swimmers who brave the high surf. Fort Pickens, located in Gulf Islands National Seashore on a barrier island offshore from Pensacola, Florida, has been closed to visitors due to the approaching storm. A single 2-lane road vulnerable to storm surges runs to Fort Pickens. Officials want to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in September 2011, when Tropical Storm Lee pushed a storm surge over the road that blocked it with sand and debris, trapping numerous campers and visitors in Fort Pickens. As of 7 pm EDT, our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on was showing storm surge levels were less than 1 foot along the Florida coast."
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/i...model_zoom.gif


This is the current marine forecast for Tampa Bay:

"Tonight: Tropical storm conditions possible. Southeast winds around 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots with gusts to tropical storm force after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday: Tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 30 to 35 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters extremely rough. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. South winds 30 to 35 knots diminishing to around 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters extremely rough. Showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.

Friday: Southwest winds around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. "
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...bw&zmx=1&zmy=1


Substantially higher gusts are possible in squalls which seem to be abundant in this system particularly on the eastern side raking over Florida. There should be heavy rains and high winds for parts of Florida over the next few days.

I have updated information on the first post of this thread including radars based on Puerto Rico, Cuba and Grand Cayman, real time winds around Florida among other resources. Keep an eye on weather developments this season and prepare early as may be indicated. Good luck this hurricane season.

The models seem to be shifting with regard to TS Dorian. Before they were predicting a lack of strengthening due to dry air and shear from a low near the southeast coast. This is still a far off forecast, lessening the reliability still it is looking like it may strengthen becoming more organized per this current GFS model. Whether it will remain a tropical storm, build into a hurricane or hopefully fizzle out as forecast yesterday, is still off in the future.


http://passageweather.com/maps/westindies/wind/180.png

Yesterday it just dissolved into some light green rain, no longer however. You can see the animated model on the first post of this thread from Passage Weather.



This is the current NHC track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...30W5_NL_sm.gif


There is still lots of time for this to weaken, strengthen, change direction, etc., it is worth monitoring.



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Time to bring this back to the top for the season. Here's to a quiet summer!