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Old 08-26-2015, 11:40 AM
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RickI RickI is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Florida
Posts: 8,697

Erika is taking a similar path to that of Danny. Danny was devoured by dry air and shear over Puerto Rico and was largely taken out of play.
Erika may be fighting similar factors as it moves WNW towards Florida. For now thought it is forecast, way off in the future, to turn into a
hurricane near or over South Florida around Sunday. We can hope it will vanish too but even if it hits as a tropical storm we can expect
some pretty bad weather and likely storm damage too depending on how strong it is at the time.
First Danny, now Erika have been channeled along a similar path into South Florida by a large Bermuda High. Absent other factors which
are always possible, it is reasonable to expect future systems may be guided along a similar path until the high eases/moves/reshapes.

A snapshot from this morning. Erika is looking more organized and gaining some thunderstorms.

So, by current long term forecasts, I would expect some bad weather late in the weekend, possibly a hurricane, or not. The system
is a pretty fast mover and seems to be accelerating a bit, so timing and strength may vary along with the path. Hurricanes can
change strength/categories rapidly at times, so it worth taking seriously. I would monitor things closely and act in advance of
worsening conditions should they develop. Given that other systems may follow this same path for a while, it is a good time to
check on your supplies and preparations. Good luck out there through the season.

FKA, Inc.

transcribed by:
Rick Iossi

Last edited by RickI; 08-26-2015 at 12:17 PM.
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