It doesn't look that bad near term (a few days out), at least rideable. The lack of waves down there gives you more grunt for the knot than off the mainland in surf. I don't put much trust in wind forecasts more than three or so days out. You will need a boat for Duck Key or hook up with a sea taxi but you probably knew that already. You can ride in Florida Bay or on the Straits side to take advantage of specific wind directions. Looking at the forecasts up both east and west coasts of South Florida out a few days, looks like you have stronger forecast winds right where you are going. It isn't nuking but it warm, calm, fairly clear. Hope the wind comes per the forecast or better. Could be some squalls so do proper weather planning and monitoring,
http://fksa.org/showthread.php?p=43520#post43520
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...fl&zmx=1&zmy=1
Thursday...Northwest to north winds near 25 knots...decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas beyond the reef 5 to 8 feet. Seas inside the reef 2 to 4 feet. Nearshore waters very rough...becoming choppy.
Thursday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas beyond the reef 5 to 7 feet...except higher in the gulf stream. Seas inside the reef 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters choppy.
Friday...North winds 15 to 20 knots early...becoming northeast and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas beyond the reef 4 to 6 feet... Subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Seas higher in the gulf stream. Seas inside the reef 2 to 3 feet...subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters choppy...becoming a light chop. Isolated showers late friday night.
Friday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas beyond the reef 2 to 3 feet. Seas inside the reef around 1 foot. Nearshore waters smooth to a light chop.
Saturday...Winds becoming southwest near 15 knots...shifting to west to northwest and increasing to 20 to 25 knots late. seas beyond the reef 2 to 4 feet...building to 4 to 6 feet. Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 feet...building to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop...becoming very rough. Scattered showers.
Sunday...Northwest to north winds near 15 knots...decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas beyond the reef 4 to 6 feet...subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Seas inside the reef 2 to 3 feet...subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters a moderate chop...becoming a light chop.
Monday...Winds becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas beyond the reef 2 to 4 feet. Seas inside the reef 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters a light to moderate chop.