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Old 10-23-2012, 01:57 PM
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ricki ricki is offline
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Default Seriously Strong Wind (and SNOW?) On The Way

It is too far off to say with much certainty but it looks like the east coast of Florida and certainly the Bahamas will have some strong winds this week from TS Sandy. Before that though Jamaica and Cuba may well feel Sandy as a Cat. I hurricane. It is supposed to weaken down to a tropical storm again as it passes over Cuba, lets hope it does. At any rate take good care out there.


From Passageweather.com

This advanced forecast is from around noon local time in Florida on Friday, October 26, 2012. You can see some strong winds just offshore and likely between now and Saturday from this system. The timing of this is uncertain this far in advance, so don't fixate on any of this. It is just an advanced heads up.

Whether we have serious squalls or not may depend on feeder band development and placement. It is too far off at this point to say much more about that. The current rain forecast for Florida is low but that could change.



http://www.wunderground.com/data/
A look at the basin satellite imagery



http://www.wunderground.com/
A closer look at Florida, some feeder bands are already sliding over Florida Tuesday afternoon.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov


Be sure to monitor http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=1609 as this system passes through to try to avoid nasty surprises.


Here is the NWS forecast for Palm Beach County. This will change in the coming days how much in what way is uncertain at this time.

"Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM

Rest Of Today: East northeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers.

Tonight: Tropical storm conditions possible. East northeast winds 17 to 22 knots with gusts to around 30 knots along the coast to east northeast 23 to 28 knots with gusts to around 40 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers.

Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Northeast winds 26 to 31 knots along the coast to northeast 26 to 31 knots with gusts to around 45 knots in the gulf stream. Along the coast... Gusts up to 45 knots in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas up to 15 feet building to 13 to 15 feet with occasional seas up to 19 feet in the afternoon. Dominant period 8 seconds. Northeast swell 3 feet increasing to east 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. North winds 31 to 36 knots with gusts to around 50 knots along the coast to north 30 to 39 knots with gusts to around 55 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 14 to 17 feet with occasional seas up to 20 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters extremely rough. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. North northwest winds 30 to 37 knots with gusts to around 50 knots along the coast to north northwest 34 to 41 knots with gusts to around 55 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 13 to 15 feet with occasional seas up to 19 feet along the coast and up to 17 to 21 feet with occasional up to 24 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters extremely rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday: West northwest winds 21 to 26 knots with gusts to around 35 knots along the coast to northwest 26 to 31 knots with gusts to around 45 knots in the gulf stream. Along the coast... Seas 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas up to 15 feet subsiding to 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet in the afternoon. In the gulf stream...seas 16 to 20 feet with occasional seas up to 23 feet subsiding to 13 to 15 feet with occasional seas up to 19 feet in the afternoon. North swell 5 to 8 feet. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Slight chance of showers. "

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/


Speaking of the Bahamas, it doesn't look good over there at all from the forecast, much less for kiting per Barometer Bob in the Abacos. Bet there will be a ton of squalls as well as high sustained winds the rest of the time with the storm passage.

"Wednesday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain, then thunderstorms in the afternoon. High of 84F. Windy. Winds from the East at 25 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday Night
Overcast with thunderstorms, then a chance of a thunderstorm and rain after midnight. Low of 72F. Windy. Winds from the East at 25 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 82F. Winds from the ENE at 35 to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Thursday Night
Overcast with a chance of rain. Low of 72F. Winds from the NE at 50 to 65 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 1.4 in. possible.
Friday
Overcast with rain. High of 82F. Winds from the North at 70 to 75 mph. Chance of rain 90% with rainfall amounts near 4.4 in. possible."
http://barometerbob.org



Kite responsibly within your abilities, experience and gear limits as always. Don't have a small enough kite, solid past experience in similar conditions or if squalls move in, don't kite.


.
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Last edited by ricki; 10-25-2012 at 02:16 PM.
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Old 10-24-2012, 09:56 PM
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Here is some more recent information on now Hurricane Sandy. They are saying it might build in strength to above Cat. I strength over the Bahamas. Interests in impacted areas need to monitor this system closely.


From Passageweather.com

Here is one model forecast for the wind field and organization of Sandy at 4 pm local time tomorrow, Thursday.

Looking at the current satellite imagery it seems reasonable that we may have some serious squalls at points in Florida from feeder bands as Sandy moves north.



http://www.wunderground.com/data/
A look at the basin satellite imagery



http://www.wunderground.com/
A closer look at Florida, some feeder bands are already sliding over Florida Tuesday afternoon.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov


Be sure to monitor http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=1609 as this system passes through to try to avoid nasty surprises.


Here is the NWS forecast for Palm Beach County. This will change in the coming days how much in what way is uncertain at this time.

"Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM

Rest Of Tonight: East northeast winds 16 to 21 knots along the coast to east northeast 21 to 26 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers.

Thursday: Northeast winds 24 to 29 knots with gusts to around 40 knots along the coast to northeast 25 to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas up to 15 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Northeast swell 3 feet increasing to east northeast 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Along the coast...north northeast winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots becoming north 32 to 37 knots with gusts to around 50 knots...seas 14 to 17 feet with occasional seas up to 20 feet. In the gulf stream...north northeast winds 31 to 36 knots with gusts to around 50 knots becoming north 37 to 42 knots with gusts to around 60 knots... Seas 18 to 22 feet with occasional seas up to 25 feet. Seas 11 to 13 feet with occasional seas up to 17 feet in the evening. Dominant period 10 seconds. Intracoastal waters extremely rough. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: North northwest winds 37 to 42 knots with gusts to around 60 knots along the coast to northwest 45 to 50 knots with gusts to around 65 knots in the gulf stream. Along the coast... Seas over 20 feet with occasional seas up to 27 feet building to over 20 feet with occasional seas up to 31 feet in the afternoon. In the gulf stream...seas over 20 feet with occasional seas up to 38 feet building to over 20 feet with occasional seas up to 45 feet in the afternoon. Dominant period 11 seconds. Intracoastal waters extremely rough in exposed areas. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Along the coast...northwest winds 33 to 38 knots with gusts to around 55 knots becoming west northwest 25 to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots...seas over 20 feet with occasional seas up to 29 feet subsiding to 16 to 20 feet with occasional seas up to 23 feet. In the gulf stream...west northwest winds 39 to 44 knots with gusts to around 60 knots... Seas over 20 feet with occasional seas up to 41 feet subsiding to over 20 feet with occasional seas up to 36 feet. Intracoastal waters extremely rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday: West northwest winds 25 to 30 knots along the coast to west northwest 30 to 35 knots in the gulf stream. Gusts up to 50 knots. Along the coast...seas 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas up to 18 feet. In the gulf stream...seas over 20 feet with occasional seas up to 29 feet subsiding to 18 to 22 feet with occasional seas up to 25 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Slight chance of showers.

Saturday Night: Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots along the coast to northwest 24 to 29 knots with gusts to around 40 knots in the gulf stream. Along the coast...seas 11 to 13 feet with occasional seas up to 17 feet. In the gulf stream...seas 17 to 21 feet with occasional seas up to 24 feet subsiding to 14 to 17 feet with occasional seas up to 20 feet. North swell 5 to 8 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. "

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/


Speaking of the Bahamas, it doesn't look good over there at all from the forecast, much less for kiting per Barometer Bob in the Abacos. Bet there will be a ton of squalls as well as high sustained winds the rest of the time with the storm passage.

"*Marine Forecast For Abacos ~ Updated ~ Wednesday, October 24, 2012 6:00:02 PM
Wednesday Night
Overcast with thunderstorms, then a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 73F. Windy. Winds from the ENE at 30 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Thursday
Overcast with rain. High of 81F. Winds from the NE at 45 to 60 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 2.0 in. possible.
Thursday Night
Overcast with rain. Fog overnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the NE at 20 to 65 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 3.3 in. possible.
Friday
Overcast with a chance of rain, then a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 82F with a heat index of 95F. Windy. Winds from the SW at 5 to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.
Friday Night
Overcast with a chance of rain in the evening, then partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 75F. Winds from the WNW at 40 to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Saturday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 81F. Winds from the WNW at 40 to 45 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain, then a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the NW at 30 to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
"
http://barometerbob.org



From the forecast there will be times when conditions won't be kiteable due to excessively strong gusty winds particularly on Friday and at times tomorrow as well in Southeast Florida.

Kite, if you choose to go at all, responsibly within your abilities in these advanced conditions, experience and gear limits as always. Don't have a small enough kite, solid past experience in similar conditions or if squalls move in, don't kite.



.
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transcribed by:
Rick Iossi

Last edited by ricki; 10-24-2012 at 10:15 PM.
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Old 10-25-2012, 02:11 PM
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Not good news from the models. Sandy along with an early strong cold front could impact the northeast with flooding, heavy snow, high winds
and widespread damage.

"An unusual nasty mix of a hurricane and a winter storm that forecasters are now calling "Frankenstorm" is likely to blast most of the East Coast next week, focusing the worst of its weather mayhem around New York City and New Jersey.

U.S. government forecasters on Thursday upped the odds of a major weather mess, now saying there's a 90 percent chance that the East will get steady gale-force winds, heavy rain, flooding and maybe snow starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday.

Hurricane Sandy roars into Cuba Hurricane Sandy prompts storm watch in Florida
Meteorologists say it is likely to cause $1 billion in damages.

The storm is a mix of Hurricane Sandy, now in the Caribbean as a Category 2 storm, as well as an early winter storm in the West and a blast of arctic air from the North. They're predicted to collide and park over the country's most populous coastal corridor and reach as far inland as Ohio.

The hurricane part of the storm is likely to come ashore somewhere in New Jersey on Tuesday morning, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco. But this is a storm that will affect a far wider area, so people all along the East have to be wary, Cisco said."

More at http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-...-frankenstorm/
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