WHAT WENT WRONG? - Summary Of Ft. Lauderdale Lofting & Videos

[b-rad]

OttoNP makes a great point-

Predictability.

As the weather gets less and less predictable...the danger gets greater.

Is there a "Predictability Factor" in weather forecasting?

Maybe our kite forecasts could read something like: E15-20 with a P5 (good forecast) or something like that to provide even more information about the quality of wind... In FL the forecast is isolated thunderstorms everyday so we don't even read that...

[ricki]

Originally Posted by b-rad

OttoNP makes a great point-

Predictability.

As the weather gets less and less predictable...the danger gets greater.

Is there a "Predictability Factor" in weather forecasting?

Maybe our kite forecasts could read something like: E15-20 with a P5 (good forecast) or something like that to provide even more information about the quality of wind... In FL the forecast is isolated thunderstorms everyday so we don't even read that...

To some degree, things can vary enormously point to point and from one season to the next as you know. Take a look at some of these articles below, this stuff have been in circulation for many years. They help to focus in on "useable" and "unuseable" wind, the kind you want and the kind to avoid.

I don't see a day in the near term in which kitesurfers won't have to do our own weather interpretation to some degree. You can have a 3 mile diameter squall that will boost winds to 40 to 50 mph in seconds that is a point point on the area radar. Unless there are a bunch of them and even then at times in summer thermal squalls, the wx forecasters may not pick it up. So, a lot of this is up to us. Good news is that it isn't that hard or complex to form some useful impressions.

Please read over:
http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=7043
and the top two posts at:
http://fksa.org/forumdisplay.php?f=12

Dangerous weather isn't that hard to avoid if we try.

[ricki]

Hey Brad,

I apologize, I was responding to your post above this and screwed up hitting edit instead of quote right beside it. I had no intention to mess up your original post. I've tried to recover it but can't seem to do so. I feel particularly bad as your post had to have taken some time to put together. Sorry again.

[ricki]

I hope no one else has been messed up in all this squall activity. Seems like it has been going on for days. Checkout some images through TS Fay:


Back on the 18th as the storm was just easing over Florida. Checkout those feeder bands, packed with squalls and moving at around 50 to 60 mph over the surface. Those are holes but how fast do they close?!


Matecumbe, August 18, 2008
This is some gusty stuff. If you were stationary as most of us are, you would feel these squalls rake over you on a regular basis. Seemed like twice an hour for a long time. Counting it looks like four times per hour or more in some cases. Even if you don't get blow into something hard, the gust lull cycles are a lot of work. Anyone up for rigging for 5 to 52 mph winds, uh what size should you setup? Kites like fairly steady winds, we make up the difference through handling and exertion for winds that are not.



The next day, how much time do you think they had between getting bashed by squalls in those feeder bands in the Keys. The entire state gets treated to this sort of thing as the system sides north. Any of those red splotches could toast you with a 60 mph or even higher burst. The thing about wind stations is they're stationary and read local winds. Weather moves and effects large areas. You can have far more extreme or mild wind not too far away from the stations.



Hobe Sound, August 19, 2008
Yeah baby, where do I sign up to enjoy 3 to 45 mph winds with high speed direction changes? Count the number of spikes per hour and imagine having a nice kite up through all that. You can see it just yo yo'ed all day just like that.



Days later and further north. The eye is getting pretty large. It's a hole right? How long does it stay over you and how free is it from squalls? Hard to say.



Getting up around Cocoa later in the week, still hammering through, tons of spike and lulls, for days!

Tropical systems can be a trip, just make sure it isn't to the ER. There are few real surprises with these systems as far as generating local crappy conditions. It is more a matter of how bad and how long. Bottom line, tropical systems can locally make for bad kiting weather, lots of work and a good chance of getting slammed. Out of the area of the center, there are feeder bands, sometimes hundreds of miles long or even larger. No end of embedded storms in many of these convection bands. I was almost taken out by a storm that was centered 150 miles north and on the other coast of Florida. My feeder band was about 400 miles long so a 150 mile spacing amounts to nothing. That is if you're in the wrong place at the wrong time. AVOID Squalls.

[b-rad]

Originally Posted by RickI

Hey Brad,

I apologize, I was responding to your post above this and screwed up hitting edit instead of quote right beside it. I had no intention to mess up your original post. I've tried to recover it but can't seem to do so. I feel particularly bad as your post had to have taken some time to put together. Sorry again.

Thats ok Rick, I'm sure it was a mistake...



I've read the above articles before...and suggested others do the same.

Obviously I think weather prediction and squall avoidance is cruital to a kiter's survival...to imply otherwise is absurd and a little offensive seeing that I have dedicated almost a decade to teaching people safety.

I'm trying to get deeper (and it's been difficult - probably due the limitations of a forum discussion) and discuss how we can help people, educate people, warn people when the traditional stuff doesn't work...because I don't think we're doing enough.

It might be time to start another thread...

[noel]

Brad,

I found this post of yours and was wondering what kiteing fatallity you are talking about.

Well, hopefully August will go down as an important month in kiting as there were some pretty bad accidents and a fatality in the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area during tropical storm Fay. Although there was some ridable wind from the storm, there were definately some "DO NOT RIDE" conditions throuout the state that all kiters, regardless of experience, should avoid.

As a new kiter, you MUST know when to go and more importantly when to NOT go out. There is a ton of information on this forum about weather prediction and safe kiting. Take advantage of it and take a certified lessons!

We will be offerring all kinds of lesson packages, camps and cliniques this year that range from FREE to inexpensive. Take advantage, get connected, and learn how to rip for the long haul.
__________________
Your own quote is "Although there was some ridable wind from the storm, there were definately some "DO NOT RIDE" conditions throuout the state that all kiters, regardless of experience, should avoid." but I know that your instructors rode in winds gusting over 50 mph during the same storm. I thought we were trying to show by example. Guess not.

[b-rad]

Did you actually read this thread or did you just jump in to try to make your competition look bad?


Quote from noel on kiteforum:

noel Post subject: Re: More Dipshits in FloridaPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 1:40 am
Very Frequent Poster
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2005 4:05 pm
Posts: 635
You know, I do find it quite funny when people ride in high winds or hurricanes such as Dimitri in Hatteras or Flash in 50 knots, no one says a thing. I have kited in winds close to 50 and had fun. Of course it wasn't 20 gusting to 55. That would be pretty crazy. If you go to Maui, it's the norm to ride in 35 +. I guess we are all dipshit and kooks.






"I have kited in winds close to 50 and had fun." - yeah, that part particularly popped out to me after you attacked our instructors for doing the same thing... so are you for or against high wind kiting???

Dude you need to back off...I am over it...and do not even think of coming to Whale Harbor ever again if you keep starting crap like this with me. Mike and Shana told me they are tired of you starting crap on the forums...it makes the Otherside look bad and it does nothing good for kiting in the Keys. It has been nice and quiet around here since you have been gone...think we can keep it that way this season?

[noel]

Not trying to start anything. But what we need to do is start by setting a good example. AGREED?! What if one of your guys got hurt or worse? The guys I talked to thought it was a terrible idea. By listening to you, I hear you think the same. No? I have kited in high winds and there is nothing wrong with it. But hurricane winds are very inconsistent and as you know from experience, you have little to no control of the situation during it.

This is not a bash. You always take it that way no matter what. All I'm saying is we need to practice what we preach.