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Old 12-14-2009, 12:42 PM
DocDeuce DocDeuce is offline
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Default south florida weather

Hey Rick, getting ready to come down this weekend to the keys. The weather reports i keep getting have such a differential. some say 5-6 knots, ikitesurf says 20-25. What do you figure in all your weather wisdom?

DD
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Old 12-17-2009, 09:14 AM
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RickI RickI is offline
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Sorry, just saw your post, don't know how I missed it. Anyway, the forecasts are for wind and lots of it this weekend. The only site I use for marine forecasts in SE Florida is NWS and for the Keys, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/zone/south/keymz.htm

They aren't always right, frequently modify longer range forecasts as the target date arrives. Still, I find them more accurate than the other sites I've seen. Many sites use computer generated forecast with no to minimal manual checking and tweaking. This makes a big difference in accuracy. For real time winds, advanced computer graphics and animation, various paramater maps, I always go to ikitesurf.com just not for forecasts.

So, the nearshore forecast doesn't seem to vary a great deal throughout the Keys this weekend, at this point. It will likely change over the next few days however. See below. The tricky thing in the curved Keys is the direction. NE is side off and excessively gusty in some areas but not in others. So, where you are planning to kite has a bearing on things. You may need to take a boat to the flats of Florida Bay if it clocks north of west, again in some areas.

Last point, squalls. Looks like there will be some, be sure to do your weather planning, checking color radar on loop, satellite maps, upweather real time wind (what little there is for the Keys) and hazard forecasts. Could get gnarly out there from current indications at times. Have a post to make on that point after this.

FRIDAY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...INCREASING TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF BUILDING TO 5 TO 7
FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS
BECOMING ROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS...BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 4 TO
7 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 2 TO 3 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS ROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 5
TO 8 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 2 TO 4 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS
ROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY.

SUNDAY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE
REEF 4 TO 7 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 2 TO 3 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS
ROUGH.
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