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Old 10-25-2011, 01:04 PM
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tking3 tking3 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Tampa
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Post To go with the forecast or use local judgment?

To go with the forecast or use local judgment?

How many times have you seen the forecast, made the necessary preparations for the day and readied your gear for riding only to have it not pan out? Or used local judgment only to have the forecast get you in the end?

It’s happened to all of us more times than we care to remember, but here are a few points I can suggest to help you better your odds in the fight for more sessions.

First lets imagine the possibilities for session out comes when it comes time on who to trust.

Source Used……. Forecast Local Judgment
Forecast Riding Not Riding
Local Judgment Not Riding Riding

Of the errors that can be made which one is the worst……?
Type 1 error you incorrectly assume its going to be windy “false positive”
or
Type 2 error you fail to see that its windy enough to have a session “false negative”

Well for most “sane” kiteboarders the answer is simple…it’s missing that session when your guts or the forecast failed you. The feeling when you realized what’s happened is dreaded. You look yourself in the mirror and say “I’ll never forgive you.”

The simple fixes:
1) Use multiple forecasting sources and check different locations for the same day and times. If you see some breeze in the forecast check a couple of places to see if they gybe with one another. Do the forecasting resources like NOAA and ikitesurf match? What do the marine reports and newspaper say. Another way to see how accurate the forecast will be is to check multiple areas for the same day to see if there are similar shifts and intensity modeled in the forecast.
2) Keep a log. This sounds time consuming and tedious but keeping a log with how the forecast source matched up with the real time data is huge. Hind-sight biased and your guts will always keep you guessing if you don’t keep yourself honest. In just a short time you’ll improve your accuracy in nailing those key sessions others missed. Plus when there’s a period of no-wind and your not chasing after it, you can drool over all those noted sessions!

In time you’ll have your friends wondering where you got all your time for kiting and they’ll be begging you for your forecast source. The tips above will help you find the reliable sources to trust and when to pull the trigger one way or the other.
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