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  #41  
Old 07-27-2014, 03:24 PM
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It is still early in the season (we hope) but there is a wave across the Atlantic to the southwest of the Cap Verde Islands which may strengthen in the coming week. Here is the bouyweather.com GFS model prediction for next Sunday, August 3, 2014. This is a week out and anything can happen including having thing vanish hopefully. Anyway, it is that time of year so heads up and keep an eye on the weather.



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Old 08-18-2015, 08:07 PM
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I had hopes for an uneventful tropical weather season. It could still happen but for now it looks like we may have a hurricane heading into our region soon. TD Danny was designated as a tropical storm today as it crosses the Atlantic from the Cape Verde Islands. It is showing good signs of organization and is anticipated to strengthen.


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/

It is forecast at the present time to become a low grade hurricane Thursday afternoon.


Shea Gibson and the folks at WeatherFlow/WindAlert have assembled this graphic for the storm. More at: http://www.windalert.com and https://www.facebook.com/groups/Chuc...eport/?fref=nf




http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4...daynl#contents

Pulling out the digital Ouija board, one long range GFS forecast path shown below for the center of the storm, has it crossing over Guadaloupe late on August 24th.. Then it is forecast to pass over Puerto Rico. These are very long range projections with a lot of uncertainty and MAY NEVER HAPPEN, or they might. Best to consider it a wake up call for now and not much more for South Florida at this time.


Assembled from GFS model projections on http://passageweather.com/ and may be nothing more than colorful fiction or not. Time will tell.


There is an excellent video analysis of the storm and future prospects at:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/...e-a-hurricane/


It is likely it may play out differently but how differently is unknown, stronger, weaker, by a different path and time, etc.. With luck some dry air and wind shear will weaken the system. So it goes with tropical weather.

This is what Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground has to say about it currently:

"Most of the dynamical track models now move Danny toward the west-northwest at a fairly modest pace until this weekend, when a building ridge to the north should help push it at a faster rate. By that point, Danny would draw on oceanic heat content that gradually increases along its path. However, a large area of dry air and Saharan dust north of Danny may inhibit its development at times. With a solid convective core, Danny might be able to fend off interference from this dry, dusty air until it encounters pockets of stronger wind shear, a possibility that long-range models are suggesting for this weekend into early next week. Thus, there is no guarantee that Danny would maintain whatever strength it attains in the deep tropics, and it is still far too early to predict with any confidence how much of a threat Danny might pose to the United States if it survives the long trek. A small change in trajectory now would have big implications for the track many days from now. "
More at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?entrynum=3076

It is possible we might have some tropical weather to deal with in South Florida in the later part of next week, or not. 'Tis the season, check your supplies, preparations and hope the season goes to sleep despite your precautions. Take care.
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Old 08-20-2015, 10:10 AM
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Danny is now a minimal hurricane heading slowly to the WNW, towards us. It is forecast to weaken back to TS status after passing over the Antilles and then … we'll see.


Forecast track and intensities from: http://crownweather.com/
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Old 08-23-2015, 06:04 PM
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Shea Gibson with WeatherFlow/iKitesurf provides an overview of things meteorologists look for in the Atlantic Basin when evaluating tropical weather.

More at http://blog.weatherflow.com/atlantic...rologists-use/
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Old 08-26-2015, 10:40 AM
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Erika is taking a similar path to that of Danny. Danny was devoured by dry air and shear over Puerto Rico and was largely taken out of play.
Erika may be fighting similar factors as it moves WNW towards Florida. For now thought it is forecast, way off in the future, to turn into a
hurricane near or over South Florida around Sunday. We can hope it will vanish too but even if it hits as a tropical storm we can expect
some pretty bad weather and likely storm damage too depending on how strong it is at the time.



https://www.facebook.com/7NewsMiami/...17613/?fref=nf
First Danny, now Erika have been channeled along a similar path into South Florida by a large Bermuda High. Absent other factors which
are always possible, it is reasonable to expect future systems may be guided along a similar path until the high eases/moves/reshapes.



A snapshot from this morning. Erika is looking more organized and gaining some thunderstorms.
http://www.wunderground.com/


So, by current long term forecasts, I would expect some bad weather late in the weekend, possibly a hurricane, or not. The system
is a pretty fast mover and seems to be accelerating a bit, so timing and strength may vary along with the path. Hurricanes can
change strength/categories rapidly at times, so it worth taking seriously. I would monitor things closely and act in advance of
worsening conditions should they develop. Given that other systems may follow this same path for a while, it is a good time to
check on your supplies and preparations. Good luck out there through the season.

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Last edited by RickI; 08-26-2015 at 11:17 AM.
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  #46  
Old 08-27-2015, 05:44 PM
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The latest from the NHC, not what I was hoping for. The easterly drift of the forecast cone has shifted westward.

Here are some video clips of the animated GFS model projections for the storm.


https://vimeo.com/137544289
The southern area



https://vimeo.com/137544609
The northern area


I had recorded these runs of the GFS model and thought, no I won't put them up. Unfortunately, it agrees closely with the
current NHC forecast storm track so I figured why not? I will say I ran the model within the hour in which the eye went over portions
of the east coast. Now it is more easterly a good trend to continue!

Let's hope it drifts back east and/or weakens in the next few days. I would worry less about kiting on the east coast and more about getting
ready for this one. Good luck to us.

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Last edited by RickI; 08-27-2015 at 06:14 PM.
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:38 AM
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It looks like conditions were too disruptive for Erika, this just in from the NHC:

"Special Message from NHC
Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC

Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Let's hope it stays that way.

There is another large weather mass just off Africa heading our way in about a week or so. Let's hope it proves to be a weather non-event as well.
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  #48  
Old 09-06-2017, 09:49 PM
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I have updated and added some new links in response to this horrific storm on the first page of this thread. Good luck with Hurricane Irma, stay safe out there.
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Last edited by RickI; 09-07-2017 at 05:12 PM.
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