Good luck down there guys!

[ricki]

Looks like Ike may not throw a lot of wind at the Keys at this point. Sure hope not anyway. Looks like the waves will be up, 15 ft. + well offshore. Ideally for some epic surfing, fingers crossed for no storm surge or really big meteorlogic high tides to mess things up on land either. Looking at the forecast for tomorrow sounds like a good day to keep the kites in the bag. Doubt there will be a lot of holes between squalls from current indications. That is assuming you haven't evacuated. Given the swings in the news and predictions this week I wouldn't blame anyone for opting to visit Alaska for a while. Take care guys.

TUESDAY
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EAST WINDS 35 TO 45
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS. SEAS 11 TO 14 FEET...EXCEPT 14 TO 20
FEET WELL OFFSHORE OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 3 TO 6
FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS EXTREMELY ROUGH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.ph...054&syn=gmz005

[b-rad]

Thanks Rick. Hopefully tomorrow will be like today (I think it will be worse) We actually had a really good kite day today with the exception of a squall line this afternoon.

We had about 4 -5 kiters out today...it was actually fairly steady. We all watched closely for any sign of a squall and had a great time.

It seems that we really dodged a bullet...hardly anything so far. 30knots and clear skies. We will have two more high tides though (and squalls are on the way).

[b-rad]

Here's what we were in today:

09 08 8:00 pm E 32 35 - - - - 29.79 -0.01 83.3 84.0 - 36.04 - -
09 08 7:00 pm E 34 39 - - - - 29.78 -0.05 84.0 84.0 - 36.06 - -
09 08 6:00 pm E 29 35 - - - - 29.78 -0.09 82.9 84.0 - 36.08 - -
09 08 5:00 pm E 25 27 - - - - 29.80 -0.06 81.7 84.2 - 36.06 - -
09 08 4:00 pm E 21 25 - - - - 29.83 -0.05 79.2 84.2 - 36.03 - -
09 08 3:00 pm ESE 35 39 - - - - 29.87 -0.02 76.1 84.4 - 36.11 - -
09 08 2:00 pm E 31 35 - - - - 29.86 -0.04 84.0 84.4 - 36.13 - -
09 08 1:00 pm E 26 30 - - - - 29.87 -0.03 83.8 84.6 - 36.21 - -
09 08 12:00 pm E 27 30 - - - - 29.89 +0.00 83.8 84.2 - 36.24 - -
09 08 11:00 am E 28 32 - - - - 29.91 +0.01 83.8 84.2 - 36.25 - -
09 08 10:00 am ENE 27 30 - - - - 29.90 +0.02 83.5 84.2 - 36.24 - -
09 08 9:00 am ENE 25 28 - - - - 29.90 +0.03 83.3 84.2 - 36.24 - -
09 08 8:00 am ENE 24 28 - - - - 29.89 +0.02 83.1 84.2 - 36.21 - -
09 08 7:00 am ENE 24 27

[ricki]

Glad things aren't as severe as they could have been. I hope no one is out in these squall lines ripping through the Keys, particularly the mid to upper Keys right now. Looks pretty lethal.


Upper Matecumbe




The forecast (seems accurate at this point):

TODAY
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS. SEAS 11 TO 15 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF
3 TO 5 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS VERY ROUGH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

[greg meintjes]

So far so good, yesterday some of the guys got to kite,it looked like it must have been fun,(not to intense), I live on the water so I had to much to do and then Kim and myself went and met Frank (conch express) and Teresa at Bogarts bar for a few drinks. I just checked Sand Keys buoy and the winds are gusting to 60+,Hopefully tomorrow it should start to stabilise enough to ride in the late afternoon.

Greg

[ricki]

Hey Greg,

Hope your day went ok down there without any high wind or water hassles in KW or anywhere else in the Keys for that matter. Today did look pretty narly. It seems like a lot of the squalls in feeder bands emphasized KW and the Islamorada areas. Areas between were honking strong too, just with fewer spikes approaching 60 mph. Here's a recap of some readings along the Keys:


The whole day at Upper Matecumbe. Three spikes to almost 60 mph, that may be a record (at least that was captured in the record). Can see some guys thinking to tough it out after 9:30 to about 12. What was it Mr. Bill used to say? Oh yeah, oh noooo, just before he goes splat against something.



KW airport was no picnic either. Look at all those gust lull cycles per hour, only about a 30 mph+ gust range. Wonder what the winds were like out away from land shadow effects?



Sand Key is miles offshore and away from most windshadow. Then again, NWS doesn't have as good a capture rate as ikitesurf so the gusts and lulls are usually smoothed out. This gives the deceptive view of more steady winds than might actually exist. Still, 50 to 70 mph, no problem, right? What is the rule of thumb wind speed reduction from Sand Key to Smathers in normal winds anyway? Say about 3 to 5 mph less?

The winds are forecast to be lower tomorrow but still some squalls. I would avoid the later with a passion. You never know what they might toss out. Say, did Frank fly down in this? That would be something. Bad joke , I know.

[conchxpress]

Things here in Cayo Hueso are calming down. No, I didn't fly the plane down. I had a week off and drove. When I left last Friday the NWS was predicting that the storm was going to follow Hanna up the east coast. Seemed like a good scenario at the time. There would be plenty of wind in KW and by the time I was ready to drive back, the weather would be good for my return. Best laid plans etc. I would have evacuated if the storm had turned northward, but Ike did us a favor and continued west. Probably the worst conditions were last night with 60 mph gusts and heavier rain, and even a tornado further up the Keys. Power outages were minimal in light of the conditions. There should be riding conditions later this afternoon and for the next few days, out of the east/southeast. Seas will still be somewhat choppy. South Roosevelt Blvd. that goes past Smathers is covered with mud, seaweed, and other debris but is usually cleaned up fairly quickly. There were a few intrepid individuals surfing yesterday near the Casa Marina pier. And in true Key West fashion there were a number of bars that didn't close. We were 110 miles from the center of the storm, and I certainly wouldn't want to experience a direct hit. Relieved it didn't hit here, but worried about the folks in Texas.

Frank