Hurricane Prediction and Tracking Resources

[ricki]

From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...?5day#contents

Ike is still very concerning and could move around a bit more before settling in on a path across Florida and at predicted CAT. 4 strength.


SEPTEMBER 5, 2008

Keys orders mandatory evacuation of visitors
> Posted by Admin at 3:57 PM

As Hurricane Ike maintains a course toward the Florida Keys, officials in the island chain this afternoon ordered a mandatory evacuation of visitors beginning at 9 a.m. Saturday.

A phased evacuation of all residents begins Sunday at 8 a.m.

Times and regions are as follows:
Lower Keys and Key West: 8 a.m.;
Middle Keys including Marathon: Noon;
Upper Keys including Key Largo, Islamorada and mainland Monroe County: 4 p.m.
“The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and Key West weather office are cautioning that a portion of the Keys may be impacted by a major hurricane,” said Keys Emergency Management Director Irene Toner, according to a news release.

“Because of our unique geography and the possibility that other Florida counties may also be ordering evacuations, it is important for residents and visitors to heed our advice.”

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news...urricane/blog/

[ricki]

This was put up as well:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:25 PM EDT on September 05, 2008
Just a quick update on the expected track for Hurricane Ike--the latest 18Z (2 pm EDT) computer model runs have completed. The newest tracks of the GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET are all about 50 miles further south than before, bringing Ike over eastern Cuba, then along Cuba or just south of Cuba before popping out into the Gulf of Mexico. The other two models, the GFS and NOGAPS, did not change their forecasts appreciably, and forecast a track through the Keys without hitting Cuba. These new model runs imply a slight lessening of the risk of Ike hitting South Florida, Southwest Florida, and the central and western Bahamas. However, the risk to the Keys is still unacceptably high, and a mandatory evacuation order has been given. I urge all Keys residents to comply with the evacuation orders. Ike is capable of causing a 14-foot storm surge in the Keys, as Hurricane Donna did in 1960. This is a storm you must evacuate for.


From: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...&tstamp=200809

Figure 1. Expected maximum storm tide (storm surge plus adjustment for hitting at high tide) from a Category 4 hurricane moving WNW at 15 mph through the Florida Keys, hitting at high tide. This plot is an ensemble of many different hurricane tracks (shown as black lines), not just one hurricane. The maximum surge from the ensemble is plotted here. The model used is NOAA's SLOSH model. Note that oceanside surge is a foot to two feet lower than bay-side surge. Bay-side surge comes well after the storm center has passed the Keys, from the westerly winds behind the storm. Too many people have been harmed because they thought it was safe to go near the water on the bay side just after a storm has passed. Image credit: Dr. Stephen Baig, NOAA.

It is so easy to focus on the line track in the center of the cone. The problem is it could go anywhere within (or outside of for that matter) the cone. We're still in the sights for this one in Florida. Hope it weakens and becomes less of a threat.