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  #11  
Old 08-31-2008, 06:33 AM
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Hanna has lost a lot of organization overnight and the tracks have changed. You are right, the forecast tracks this morning are back to all over the place. Bears watching but not real clear what will likely happen at this point.

Gustav lost some strength, down to about 125 mph but may grow stronger again before landfall on Monday. Hope it loses strength anyway and the predicted storm surge lessens as well.
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  #12  
Old 08-31-2008, 08:27 AM
conchxpress conchxpress is offline
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I was looking at the satellite map for Africa last night. There are five disturbances lined up across the continent just waiting to go on tour. No wonder they call it the "Dark Continent". Let's hope that the Atlantic wind shear forecast stays strong.
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Old 09-05-2008, 03:03 PM
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From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...?5day#contents

Ike is still very concerning and could move around a bit more before settling in on a path across Florida and at predicted CAT. 4 strength.


SEPTEMBER 5, 2008

Keys orders mandatory evacuation of visitors
> Posted by Admin at 3:57 PM

As Hurricane Ike maintains a course toward the Florida Keys, officials in the island chain this afternoon ordered a mandatory evacuation of visitors beginning at 9 a.m. Saturday.

A phased evacuation of all residents begins Sunday at 8 a.m.

Times and regions are as follows:
Lower Keys and Key West: 8 a.m.;
Middle Keys including Marathon: Noon;
Upper Keys including Key Largo, Islamorada and mainland Monroe County: 4 p.m.
“The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and Key West weather office are cautioning that a portion of the Keys may be impacted by a major hurricane,” said Keys Emergency Management Director Irene Toner, according to a news release.

“Because of our unique geography and the possibility that other Florida counties may also be ordering evacuations, it is important for residents and visitors to heed our advice.”

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news...urricane/blog/
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  #14  
Old 09-06-2008, 07:25 AM
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This was put up as well:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:25 PM EDT on September 05, 2008
Just a quick update on the expected track for Hurricane Ike--the latest 18Z (2 pm EDT) computer model runs have completed. The newest tracks of the GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET are all about 50 miles further south than before, bringing Ike over eastern Cuba, then along Cuba or just south of Cuba before popping out into the Gulf of Mexico. The other two models, the GFS and NOGAPS, did not change their forecasts appreciably, and forecast a track through the Keys without hitting Cuba. These new model runs imply a slight lessening of the risk of Ike hitting South Florida, Southwest Florida, and the central and western Bahamas. However, the risk to the Keys is still unacceptably high, and a mandatory evacuation order has been given. I urge all Keys residents to comply with the evacuation orders. Ike is capable of causing a 14-foot storm surge in the Keys, as Hurricane Donna did in 1960. This is a storm you must evacuate for.


From: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...&tstamp=200809

Figure 1. Expected maximum storm tide (storm surge plus adjustment for hitting at high tide) from a Category 4 hurricane moving WNW at 15 mph through the Florida Keys, hitting at high tide. This plot is an ensemble of many different hurricane tracks (shown as black lines), not just one hurricane. The maximum surge from the ensemble is plotted here. The model used is NOAA's SLOSH model. Note that oceanside surge is a foot to two feet lower than bay-side surge. Bay-side surge comes well after the storm center has passed the Keys, from the westerly winds behind the storm. Too many people have been harmed because they thought it was safe to go near the water on the bay side just after a storm has passed. Image credit: Dr. Stephen Baig, NOAA.

It is so easy to focus on the line track in the center of the cone. The problem is it could go anywhere within (or outside of for that matter) the cone. We're still in the sights for this one in Florida. Hope it weakens and becomes less of a threat.

Last edited by RickI; 09-06-2008 at 10:40 AM.
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Old 10-15-2008, 07:17 AM
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I know I'm not alone in wishing this hurricane season was already over. No threats to Florida right now, big thanks for that but folks not too far away have some weather coming through. Hurricane Omar is posing a threat to eastern Puerto Rico, USVI, BVI and Lesser Antilles.


A look at satellite imagery from the area.
From: http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/glob...Satellite.html

Here is some of what Dr. Masters has to say about Omar:

Omar's storm surge
If Omar does become a hurricane, wind damage is likely to be the greatest threat from the storm. Storm surge is usually not a problem in the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, since these islands are surrounded by deep water, and the surge tends to flow around the islands, rather than be forced up onto the islands. As seen in Figure 2, the maximum storm tide from a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds is generally in the 3-4 foot range in the Virgin Islands. St. Thomas and Anedega Islands can get a slightly higher surge of 5-6 feet, due to their convex shape facing southwest, which will tend to trap the surge from a northeastward moving hurricane. The down side of having deep water close to shore is that the waves will be high, and the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles Islands can expect considerable coastal erosion and damage to coastal structure due to high battering waves.



Current storm surge projections for the VI and in particular Anegada
From: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Good luck to the folks due to be hit by Omar. As I recall they layout of Anegada, there is a shelf area bounded by reefs off the southern part of the island, a narrow area of low lying land along the southern part followed by mangrove swamps in the interior on the east side of the island. The eastern part of the island may be higher lying at least with regard to swamps. Seems like there could be some serious flooding and wave scour, hope not!
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Last edited by RickI; 10-15-2008 at 07:33 AM.
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  #16  
Old 08-18-2009, 09:57 AM
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Time to move this back to the top. Hope things workout well this season.
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Old 08-19-2009, 09:24 AM
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I predict it's going to EPIC up here this weekend
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  #18  
Old 08-19-2009, 09:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John- View Post
I predict it's going to EPIC up here this weekend
Should be for waves I would think. Long slow run up with all that fetch over deep water. Should be some massive swells. Sometimes when the hurricanes pass to the east we pickup wind, not at others. If feeder bands are sweeping over the coast, be sure to keep an eye out for those.
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  #19  
Old 08-19-2009, 10:28 AM
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I hear ya Rick, it will be a surfing event for these parts, maybe some SW breeze Fri but the rest will be offshores. I'm totally stoked as there's a spot that breaks 6 miles up a river when it's huge near my house, it peels like Malibu and only works once in a blue moon, its called OldMans because no one under 35 allowed
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Old 08-24-2009, 07:05 PM
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I'm old!
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